Donald Trump won the most states last night, but so what? This is a
contest of collecting delegates, and Trump is nowhere near where he needs to
reach. In fact, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio each also collected
boatloads of delegates last night. At this point, neither Cruz
nor Rubio can win the Republican nomination before the
national convention in July. But they can work together to prevent Trump from
winning the 1237 delegates he needs, and someone other than Trump can then
claim the nomination at the convention. Get the word out!
Here are five encouraging thoughts for those who oppose Trump.
First, Cruz won three states last night, and Rubio won one
state. Put another way, TRUMP LOST IN FOUR STATES. And he won Arkansas,
Vermont, and Virginia by fewer than three points each. Cruz would have won
Arkansas if not for Ben Carson (who got 6% there), and Rubio would
have won Virginia and likely Vermont if not for John Kasich (who got 9%
and 30%, respectively). Trump bleeds, and he can be beaten!
Second, the pre-election CNN poll showing Trump at 49% nationally
was a joke. He reached that number last night in only one state: Massachusetts.
Everywhere else he was in the 20s and 30s, except Alabama (43%).
Third, Cruz and Rubio clearly outperformed their
pre-election polling by a much greater margin than Trump: Cruz by an average of
4.7%, and Rubio by an average of 3.8%. Here's a look at what the polls
said, what the votes were, and the differences between them:
This suggests that Cruz’s and Rubio's first week of all-out attacks
against Trump hurt Trump. (Recall that it was less than a week ago that Cruz
and Rubio finally starting campaigning hard against Trump).
They need to keep putting intense pressure on him by exposing his record.
Fourth, notice that Rubio and Cruz both outperformed
polling considerably in Oklahoma. Oklahoma is a closed primary—meaning that
only Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. So no Trump-supporting
Democrats were able to walk in the door to muck with the results. The vast
majority of the states yet to vote are closed primaries, which bodes well for
Cruz and Rubio. Get the word out to folks in those states!
Fifth, FORTY states and territories still have not voted, so there
is time. But time is of the essence. Trump has about 34% of votes cast in
the primary so far, while Cruz and Rubio combine for about 50%. Also, here’s
roughly what the delegate race looks like:
What’s next? Five more thoughts.
First, be ready to hear the media narrative that the election is
over, that Trump's the nominee, and that everyone else should just get out of
the race. This is garbage, but it suits the media just fine. They really
want Trump to be the Republican nominee, and they will attack and expose him
relentlessly if he becomes that.
Second, looking at the places where Cruz and Rubio most
exceeded their poll numbers suggests their path forward to a
"brokered" Republican convention. As I’ve argued before, we need to
strategically support one of these two on a state-by-state basis (see Ohio
caveat below).
•
Cruz outperformed most in Oklahoma and Alaska, both of which are
solidly conservative states. So if you know anyone in conservative-leaning
states going forward (think: western, midwestern, and southern states), that’s
Cruz country.
•
Rubio outperformed most in Minnesota and Virginia, both of which
have a high percentage of college graduates and many moderate suburban voters.
If you know anyone in states with large blocks of well-educated suburban
voters, it’s probably got to be Rubio (but check
the polls to confirm (link)). Get the word out!
Third, one explanation I've heard as to why Trump is connecting with
so many people is the notion that many Americans see the "system" as
completely broken and are unwilling to play in it any more. (See
link here.) They may have called themselves conservatives, but they really
weren't -- they just didn't like what liberals were doing with the country. The
Republican leadership has now let them down one too many times, so they have
just given the middle figure to every sort of political establishment. Trump is
masterfully riding the wave of voter anger and despondency, and they don't care
a lick about his character or his policies. These folks have an emotional
connection to Trump (who talks about how terrible things are in America and
promises a return to greatness), so rational arguments have little effect on
them. In many ways, they are just like many of the folks who supported
President Obama in 2008. If there are people like this in your life that you
want to persuade, let's pray we can do it in a way that acknowledges their
feelings.
Fourth, as much as I loathe Ohio Governor John Kasich’s decision to
stay in the race until now (costing Rubio in Vermont and Virginia, at
least), at this point he probably needs to stay in the race until he can
prevent Trump from winning Ohio on 3/15. I might revise my thoughts on this
after a new round of polling comes out.
Fifth, Ben Carson strikes me as an honorable man. But his decision
to stay in the race for so long seems like a vanity play. It would be
dishonorable for him not to drop out immediately, as he’s doing nothing but
siphoning votes from (mostly) Cruz.
#NeverTrump
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