The Republican electorate this year is roughly divided among populists (Trump, Carson), conservatives (Cruz, Fiorina, Jindal, Perry), and moderate/establishment candidates (Kasich, Bush, Christie, Rubio (sort of)). That dynamic has ripped the party to shreds and will likely lose us the election this year.
Early indications are that Kasich's win in Ohio was a bad thing. Even at this late hour, the moderate/establishment crowd is unwilling to get behind Cruz, even though they have no other alternative to Trump and Trump is an almost-guaranteed loser to Hillary Clinton. Indeed, it seems that they’d rather see Trump be the nominee than Cruz: leading senators have yet to endorse Cruz, and Kasich is paying to run ads in Utah — a state where he has no chance of winning but could only divide the anti-Trump vote and deny Cruz the state’s 40 delegates. Plus, Rubio’s decision to drop out Tuesday night rather than two weeks ago (when it was pretty clear he couldn’t win Florida) gave four states to Trump that otherwise would’ve gone to Cruz: Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, and North Carolina.
Everything I wrote on March 14 still stands. Cruz/Kasich could still deny Trump the necessary 1237 delegates, and Cruz would be the most plausible selection if we have a contested Republican convention. But it’s looking grim, especially since it appears that many Republicans aren’t bothered by Trump threatening riots, inciting violent rage, and employing a campaign manager accused of criminal battery against a woman.
For what it's worth, below is the polls-versus-results comparison chart I've been keeping, updated to show results of the most recent contests. Again, Cruz is outperforming his polls better than any other candidate, but not by as much as before and not enough.
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