Friday, February 26, 2016

Never give up, Never give up, Never Never Never give up! Read this, pray, and then vote!

We have an incredible opportunity before us—but it is very close to slipping away.  This year, presidential primary voting occurs in my state (and most of your states) while at least one party’s nomination for President is still very much up in the air. So please, please, please pray, then get out and vote. Also, pass these thoughts along as you see fit.

Brief Summary
Here’s the bottom line: I urge you to vote for either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio, and I urge you to vote (or caucus) for whichever of those two is doing better in pre-election polling in your state. It may seem strange to vote for someone based on polling rather than just personal preference—but it will help us keep this amazing moment from passing us by.

As an example of how this will work, since I live in Virginia, my vote will be for Senator 
Marco Rubio, and I urge Virginians to vote for him on March 1. Folks in Massachusetts and Alabama should also vote for Rubio that day. But if you live in Texas or Arkansas, I urge you to vote for Senator Ted Cruz. Polling in other March 1 states is too close to call between those two, so either candidate would be a great choice, and future polling will help you know how to vote in states that vote after March 1. To get the best estimate of how the candidates are polling in your state, go to Real Clear Politics (click link) and find the average of poll results for your particular state.

I recommend this approach for a few simple reasons: either of these two candidates would make a fine president, either could win a general election against the Democrat nominee, and Donald Trump should be stopped. By choosing Cruz or Rubio based on your state, you’ll help these two combine to win as many states as possible, to be highly competitive in states even where Trump wins (more on him later), and to earn as many delegates as possible.  Ultimately, one of them could become the Republican nominee by amassing enough delegates—they are not required to win a certain number of states.

More Thorough Explanation
The opportunity we have in this year’s election is this: to elect an intelligent, articulate, and honorable conservative who will appreciate and celebrate America’s greatness, restrain federal government overreach, appoint judges who will adhere to the Constitution’s original intent, and help us pass along these American values to the next generation—and do all this while reflecting the diversity of our nation. Americans are unhappy with the direction of our country, and even angry with our leaders—both Democrats and Republicans. But let’s make the most of the situation, channeling our anger in support for a positive and achievable vision for America.

Why Ted Cruz? Cruz is my favorite candidate of anyone still running. I have donated to his campaign, and I think he’d make the best President. He is ardently conservative (links here and here) and strategically brilliant, and he has a thoroughgoing knowledge of law and policy. He has excelled throughout his youth and adult life, working for the late Chief Justice Rehnquist, earning his way to elite positions in the private sector and government, and successfully defending Constitutional liberties before the Supreme Court. He is relentlessly disciplined in making his case and doing so persuasively, to those who can be persuaded (link) and those who will not be (link). He also has showed a legendary willingness to confront the political establishment and fight for a return to Constitutional principles and limited government. 

Why Marco Rubio? Rubio is a true and competent conservative. In fact, five years ago anyone questioning his conservative credentials would have been labeled a nut. He reached the U.S. Senate by running as a conservative and beating the establishment-backed governor of Florida. Before that, he had built that reputation as a leader in the Florida legislature. Also, widely regarded organizations supporting conservative causes have given him high marks. For examples, see links here and here.  He, like Cruz, has consistently argued for low taxes (link), a strong national defense, religious liberty (link), and for protecting both the unborn and their mothers (link). Along the way, he has demonstrated that he is a highly effective communicator and a quick study of national and foreign affairs. While his position concerning illegal immigrants in the U.S. has upset some conservatives, he has stated clearly that he understands that Americans demand to see our border secured before we deal with those who are already here.  

Why either one? For both Rubio and Cruz, electability is just as important as ideology. President Obama’s two victories demonstrate that any Republican running for national office faces a steep climb, but Cruz and Rubio have the necessary attributes to prevail. Rubio is a charismatic and polished speaker, and polls show that he is viewed more favorably than nearly any other Republican candidate. For examples, see links here and here. Cruz, for his part, has strategically climbed from being a long shot to a top-echelon candidate, and he is a great debater and orator who can make the case for conservative principles as well as anyone. Polls also show that either Rubio (link) or Cruz (link) would fare much better in the general election campaign against Hillary Clinton than Trump (link).  This cannot be overemphasized. Rubio and Cruz consistently do better in polls against Hillary Clinton than does Trump. Moreover, Rubio is popular in the key swing state of Florida, whose votes could once again decide who ultimately becomes President, and Cruz will bring out conservative voters who have found Republican nominees in recent elections to be unpalatable. On top of this, Rubio (link) and Cruz (links here) and here) are relatable to Americans, having young, handsome families, coming from working-class immigrant parents, and reflecting America’s diversity.

Why not one of the other Republican candidates? At this point, a vote for anyone other than Cruz or Rubio is worse than a wasted vote—it is effectively a vote for Trump. In fact, some have gone so far as to argue that every Trump opponent—even Cruz supporters—should vote for Rubio, while others have reached the opposite conclusion favoring Cruz, but I am not sure about the wisdom of either approach. Ben Carson and John Kasich are candidates I appreciate, as are former candidates Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker, among others. But none of these other Republican candidates can defeat Trump this year. What is worse, these candidates are remaining in the race despite being unable to win, and thereby they are making it harder for Cruz and Rubio to contend with Trump in a narrowed contest. Since these candidates will not leave the race voluntarily, their supporters must leave them now; the delegate numbers simply do not add up for them.   

Why not Donald Trump? I appreciate much of what has made Trump popular thus far, including wanting to secure America’s borders and to see us act confidently in our national interest and free from political correctness, but my reasons for opposing him are simple.

First, he has proved to be an unapologetically dishonorable and dishonest person, making him unfit to lead. Indeed, I have no reason to believe that anything he says as a candidate he would do as President. There are almost innumerable illustrations of Trump’s dealings and antics over the years, including this (link) and this (link).  As a further example, this brief video (link)   highlights many examples of Trump’s dishonesty that should raise doubt to Christians and conservatives.  

Second, his words and deeds throughout his adult life give me no reason to think that he will be committed to the values and issues that are meaningful to me—whether regarding abortion, economics and trade, health care, immigration, or judicial appointments. Put simply, his long life has followed a pattern largely contrary to what he now claims to represent.

Third, his being the standard-bearer of the party with which I most closely align would wreak havoc on that party—and, more importantly, on conservatism—for many years to come, harming my and my family’s interests at the local, state, and national level.

Even if I did support Trump, I would hesitate to vote for him due to his unelectability, since he is terribly disfavored by the American public (link) as a whole and is losing in polls against Hillary Clinton (link). Democrats will hang Trump’s behavior over the years—in business and in his personal life—around his neck like an anchor if he is the Republican nominee. 

Finally, if you would like to see the candidates in action, including some especially contentious exchanges, I urge you to watch the most recent Republican debate, from February 25 (link).


God bless you as you think through this critical decision. Go vote, and go Cruz and Rubio!

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