Trump is still the odds-on favorite, but I’m optimistic that he can be prevented from obtaining a majority of delegates, which means there’ll be a lot of negotiating at the Republican convention this summer to pick a nominee. Also, Cruz has an outside shot of ending up with more delegates than Trump but, again, probably not enough to reach a majority before the convention. One real wildcard is how many candidates are left after tomorrow, and another is how voters will react to the recent spate of news stories about violence at Trump rallies, Trump’s violent rhetoric, and the alleged assault by his campaign manager against a female journalist. Disgusting, all of it.
Tomorrow is a HUGE day in the primary - more important even than Super Tuesday. In addition to Florida and Ohio, elections will be held in the big states of Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina. After it’s over, there may be only two men standing - Trump and Cruz. Or there might be three, if Kasich’s still around.
At this point, the delegate race is at Trump 463, Cruz 371, Rubio 166, and Kasich 63. Rubio is almost certain to lose Florida tomorrow, at which point I expect him to drop out of the race and hopefully endorse Cruz. If Kasich loses to Trump in Ohio, I expect that he will drop out, too, and who knows if he’ll endorse anyone. But if Kasich beats Trump in Ohio, I expect he’ll stay in the race for a long time despite being far behind in the delegate race—perhaps all the way to the convention.
I’m not sure whether a Kasich win or loss in Ohio is more likely to stop Trump. Cruz can beat Trump one-on-one if the others drop out, but he may’ve fallen too far behind by that point. If Kasich wins Ohio, I’ll be glad that Trump doesn’t get Ohio’s delegates. But Kasich remaining in the race may actually do more harm than good to the “stop Trump” effort, since he could prevent Cruz from beating Trump outright in certain upcoming states.
If it is still undecided when we reach the Republican convention, Cruz or Kasich should be the nominee. I’ve been saying for months that Cruz is my favorite candidate still in the race, but at this point, I also think he’s the only non-Trump candidate that the Trump supporters will even countenance. Trump’s supporters make up a large part of the Republican electorate, and Republicans cannot discard those supporters if they hope to beat Hillary in the fall. Plus, Cruz will almost certainly have the most delegates (other than Trump). But what do I know? Maybe Kasich, with his midwestern manner and working-class upbringing, will be able to woo the Trump supporters.
The good news is that we don’t have to know these things or worry about them, since the God of the universe has it under control. So let's pray for His mercy on our nation.
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