Special Appeal to Voters in Arizona - Stop Trump!

Hey Arizona voters, the fate of the country may depend on you. Really! Polls show that Donald Trump is leading in Arizona ahead of next week’s primary election, but that Ted Cruz is within striking distance and can beat him. Arizona is HUGE at this point in the presidential nominating process, since it has a lot of delegates and the winning candidate there gets all of those delegates. Let me emphasize this: If Trump wins the state by even a single vote, he gets all of Arizona’s delegates. And as we just saw in Missouri, that single-vote scenario can happen: Trump apparently beat Cruz in Missouri by much less than one percentage point: 40.8% to 40.6%. If Trump wins Arizona, it may be too late to stop him, but a Cruz win there would be a huge help. 

Even if you’re not a Cruz supporter—even if you can’t stand Cruz or you love Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton—vote for Cruz to stop Trump! And if you like John Kasich or think he’s better than Cruz, please recognize that voting for Kasich (or anyone else on the Republican ballot) will not help to stop Trump. Polls show that Kasich has zero chance of getting the most votes in Arizona’s Republican primary, which means that a vote for him is a missed opportunity to vote for the only candidate who can keep Trump from winning the state. Remember, Trump gets all of Arizona’s delegates if he wins by even a single vote; that could be a single voter who chooses Kasich over Cruz or an independent voter who chooses to vote in the Democrat primary instead of voting for Cruz. 

What if you already voted? It’s still not too late to tell your friends who haven’t yet voted! The election is next Tuesday, March 22.

What if you’re not a Republican? If you’re registered to vote as a Democrat, you can’t vote in the Republican primary but can still tell your friends who are eligible to vote. Registered independents, on the other hand, CAN vote in the Republican primary. Here’s a direct quote from the rules: "If you are registered in a political party which has qualified for ballot recognition, you will be permitted to vote the primary election ballot for that party. If you are registered as an independent, no party preference or as a member of a party which is not qualified for ballot recognition, you may select and vote one primary election ballot for one of the recognized political parties."

I ask you to vote for Cruz with this in mind, and to urge others to do likewise. Let’s do whatever we can to stop Trump, who shows himself daily to be a crude and authoritarian demagogue.

The Republican Race After March 15

The Republican electorate this year is roughly divided among populists (Trump, Carson), conservatives (Cruz, Fiorina, Jindal, Perry), and moderate/establishment candidates (Kasich, Bush, Christie, Rubio (sort of)). That dynamic has ripped the party to shreds and will likely lose us the election this year. 

Early indications are that Kasich's win in Ohio was a bad thing. Even at this late hour, the moderate/establishment crowd is unwilling to get behind Cruz, even though they have no other alternative to Trump and Trump is an almost-guaranteed loser to Hillary Clinton. Indeed, it seems that they’d rather see Trump be the nominee than Cruz: leading senators have yet to endorse Cruz, and Kasich is paying to run ads in Utah — a state where he has no chance of winning but could only divide the anti-Trump vote and deny Cruz the state’s 40 delegates. Plus, Rubio’s decision to drop out Tuesday night rather than two weeks ago (when it was pretty clear he couldn’t win Florida) gave four states to Trump that otherwise would’ve gone to Cruz: Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, and North Carolina.

Everything I wrote on March 14 still stands. Cruz/Kasich could still deny Trump the necessary 1237 delegates, and Cruz would be the most plausible selection if we have a contested Republican convention. But it’s looking grim, especially since it appears that many Republicans aren’t bothered by Trump threatening riots, inciting violent rage, and employing a campaign manager accused of criminal battery against a woman.

For what it's worth, below is the polls-versus-results comparison chart I've been keeping, updated to show results of the most recent contests. Again, Cruz is outperforming his polls better than any other candidate, but not by as much as before and not enough.

What happens next? Latest views on the Republican primary

Trump is still the odds-on favorite, but I’m optimistic that he can be prevented from obtaining a majority of delegates, which means there’ll be a lot of negotiating at the Republican convention this summer to pick a nominee. Also, Cruz has an outside shot of ending up with more delegates than Trump but, again, probably not enough to reach a majority before the convention. One real wildcard is how many candidates are left after tomorrow, and another is how voters will react to the recent spate of news stories about violence at Trump rallies, Trump’s violent rhetoric, and the alleged assault by his campaign manager against a female journalist. Disgusting, all of it.

Tomorrow is a HUGE day in the primary - more important even than Super Tuesday. In addition to Florida and Ohio, elections will be held in the big states of Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina. After it’s over, there may be only two men standing - Trump and Cruz. Or there might be three, if Kasich’s still around.

At this point, the delegate race is at Trump 463, Cruz 371, Rubio 166, and Kasich 63. Rubio is almost certain to lose Florida tomorrow, at which point I expect him to drop out of the race and hopefully endorse Cruz. If Kasich loses to Trump in Ohio, I expect that he will drop out, too, and who knows if he’ll endorse anyone. But if Kasich beats Trump in Ohio, I expect he’ll stay in the race for a long time despite being far behind in the delegate race—perhaps all the way to the convention. 

I’m not sure whether a Kasich win or loss in Ohio is more likely to stop Trump. Cruz can beat Trump one-on-one if the others drop out, but he may’ve fallen too far behind by that point. If Kasich wins Ohio, I’ll be glad that Trump doesn’t get Ohio’s delegates. But Kasich remaining in the race may actually do more harm than good to the “stop Trump” effort, since he could prevent Cruz from beating Trump outright in certain upcoming states. 

If it is still undecided when we reach the Republican convention, Cruz or Kasich should be the nominee. I’ve been saying for months that Cruz is my favorite candidate still in the race, but at this point, I also think he’s the only non-Trump candidate that the Trump supporters will even countenance. Trump’s supporters make up a large part of the Republican electorate, and Republicans cannot discard those supporters if they hope to beat Hillary in the fall. Plus, Cruz will almost certainly have the most delegates (other than Trump). But what do I know? Maybe Kasich, with his midwestern manner and working-class upbringing, will be able to woo the Trump supporters.

The good news is that we don’t have to know these things or worry about them, since the God of the universe has it under control. So let's pray for His mercy on our nation.

Best remaining chance to stop Trump - consolidate the Kasich/Rubio "establishment" lane

Last night was a rough one for the anti-Trump crowd (including myself), but it's not over yet. Well, it is over for John Kasich or Marco Rubio, but the other one still has a role to play.

Below are the results from the past 7 days. As I have done previously, I consider the outperform numbers as especially important.

These results deliver a few stark messages:

• Trump is dominating the race but has never gotten 50% of the vote. He clearly has a high "floor" of about 25% -- supporters who will support him no matter what -- but his failure to improve his performance in recent weeks shows that he also has a ceiling somewhere just shy of 50%. He is slightly underperforming his polls, which indicates that he remains subject to damage as his abominable personal and professional practices are exposed.
• Cruz is dramatically outperforming his polling and is the only competitor to Trump on a national basis, but he cannot compete with Trump in many big states -- at least not in a heavily divided field.
• Rubio is collapsing everywhere, dramatically underperforming his polling in several states and finishing fourth behind Kasich in Maine, Michigan, and Mississippi.
• Kasich is performing most poorly among the candidates, but he has experienced a small surge in the past week. 

My immediate reaction to this is to say that Kasich and Rubio need to get out (two weeks ago!) to let Cruz take on Trump one-on-one. But then it strikes me that many of the largest remaining states might be tough for Cruz to win one-on-one with Trump, and that an establishment-lane candidate might actually have a shot there (as was the case in Virginia, where the support for Kasich+Rubio far exceeded Trump's support).

Polls show that Kasich is within 5 points of Trump in the crucial Ohio race, while Rubio is down 15 in Florida. These two states award delegates on a winner-take-all basis, so there is no benefit in a close loss. Every poll of Ohio shows that Kasich beats Trump IF Rubio's support goes to Kasich. But the converse is not true in Florida. If you're supporting Rubio, you must really think he can overcome that 15-point deficit in Florida. I do not see a Rubio recovery here. And if Rubio loses his home state, can you imagine any reason he would have meaningful success in the states that follow? On top of all this, it's clear that Kasich and Rubio are competing in the establishment lane everywhere they go, and that Kasich has had the better of that matchup lately.

This is not at all the race we wanted to have, and many candidates should've dropped out sooner (imagine Jeb Bush dropping out after New Hampshire or Ben Carson dropping out after South Carolina). But it is the race we have.

If Rubio were to drop out now, his support would split between Cruz and Kasich. Then, with only Cruz and Kasich to split the anti-Trump vote, they could prevent Trump from getting to 1237 delegates. Looking forward to a contested convention, Kasich would be a distant third-place, so he almost certainly could not be the nominee. It'd probably need to be Cruz, who could channel at least some of the Trump supporters' dissatisfaction with government. At this point, that outcome may be the best we can hope for.

#NeverTrump

After Super Tuesday: The Anti-Trump Movement is in a BETTER Position Today Than It was Yesterday

Donald Trump won the most states last night, but so what? This is a contest of collecting delegates, and Trump is nowhere near where he needs to reach. In fact, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio each also collected boatloads of delegates last night. At this point, neither Cruz nor Rubio can win the Republican nomination before the national convention in July. But they can work together to prevent Trump from winning the 1237 delegates he needs, and someone other than Trump can then claim the nomination at the convention. Get the word out!

Here are five encouraging thoughts for those who oppose Trump.

First, Cruz won three states last night, and Rubio won one state. Put another way, TRUMP LOST IN FOUR STATES. And he won Arkansas, Vermont, and Virginia by fewer than three points each. Cruz would have won Arkansas if not for Ben Carson (who got 6% there), and Rubio would have won Virginia and likely Vermont if not for John Kasich (who got 9% and 30%, respectively). Trump bleeds, and he can be beaten!

Second, the pre-election CNN poll showing Trump at 49% nationally was a joke. He reached that number last night in only one state: Massachusetts. Everywhere else he was in the 20s and 30s, except Alabama (43%).

Third, Cruz and Rubio clearly outperformed their pre-election polling by a much greater margin than Trump: Cruz by an average of 4.7%, and Rubio by an average of 3.8%. Here's a look at what the polls said, what the votes were, and the differences between them:

 

This suggests that Cruz’s and Rubio's first week of all-out attacks against Trump hurt Trump. (Recall that it was less than a week ago that Cruz and Rubio finally starting campaigning hard against Trump). They need to keep putting intense pressure on him by exposing his record.

Fourth, notice that Rubio and Cruz both outperformed polling considerably in Oklahoma. Oklahoma is a closed primary—meaning that only Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. So no Trump-supporting Democrats were able to walk in the door to muck with the results. The vast majority of the states yet to vote are closed primaries, which bodes well for Cruz and Rubio. Get the word out to folks in those states!

Fifth, FORTY states and territories still have not voted, so there is time. But time is of the essence. Trump has about 34% of votes cast in the primary so far, while Cruz and Rubio combine for about 50%. Also, here’s roughly what the delegate race looks like:

What’s next? Five more thoughts.

First, be ready to hear the media narrative that the election is over, that Trump's the nominee, and that everyone else should just get out of the race. This is garbage, but it suits the media just fine.  They really want Trump to be the Republican nominee, and they will attack and expose him relentlessly if he becomes that.

Second, looking at the places where Cruz and Rubio most exceeded their poll numbers suggests their path forward to a "brokered" Republican convention. As I’ve argued before, we need to strategically support one of these two on a state-by-state basis (see Ohio caveat below).

•    Cruz outperformed most in Oklahoma and Alaska, both of which are solidly conservative states. So if you know anyone in conservative-leaning states going forward (think: western, midwestern, and southern states), that’s Cruz country.

•    Rubio outperformed most in Minnesota and Virginia, both of which have a high percentage of college graduates and many moderate suburban voters. If you know anyone in states with large blocks of well-educated suburban voters, it’s probably got to be Rubio (but check the polls to confirm (link)).  Get the word out!

Third, one explanation I've heard as to why Trump is connecting with so many people is the notion that many Americans see the "system" as completely broken and are unwilling to play in it any more. (See link here.) They may have called themselves conservatives, but they really weren't -- they just didn't like what liberals were doing with the country. The Republican leadership has now let them down one too many times, so they have just given the middle figure to every sort of political establishment. Trump is masterfully riding the wave of voter anger and despondency, and they don't care a lick about his character or his policies. These folks have an emotional connection to Trump (who talks about how terrible things are in America and promises a return to greatness), so rational arguments have little effect on them. In many ways, they are just like many of the folks who supported President Obama in 2008. If there are people like this in your life that you want to persuade, let's pray we can do it in a way that acknowledges their feelings.

Fourth, as much as I loathe Ohio Governor John Kasich’s decision to stay in the race until now (costing Rubio in Vermont and Virginia, at least), at this point he probably needs to stay in the race until he can prevent Trump from winning Ohio on 3/15. I might revise my thoughts on this after a new round of polling comes out.

Fifth, Ben Carson strikes me as an honorable man. But his decision to stay in the race for so long seems like a vanity play. It would be dishonorable for him not to drop out immediately, as he’s doing nothing but siphoning votes from (mostly) Cruz.

#NeverTrump